Global Scenario Overview (June 2025) Russia–Ukrain...

Global Scenario Overview (June 2025) Russia–Ukraine War (Ongoing since Feb 2022): Energy and grain supply chain disruptions. High inflation globally, especially in Europe and emerging economies. Continued Western sanctions on Russia. Israel–Iran Conflict (Tensions since early 2025): Instability in the Persian Gulf (key energy trade route). Threats of oil supply blockades and military escalation. 🇮🇳 IMPACT ON INDIAN MARKET 📈 1. Gold Prices Soaring Gold crossed $2, 450/oz globally in June 2025, highest in history. In India: Gold rates reached ₹72, 000–₹75, 000 per 10g in many cities. Why? Investors are fleeing to gold as a “safe-haven” asset. Central banks (including RBI) are increasing gold reserves amid dollar volatility. INR depreciation against USD also inflated domestic prices. 🧪 2. Chemicals & Fertilizers Raw materials like ammonium sulphate, urea, methanol, sodium nitrate are facing supply chain stress. Russia and Iran are key exporters of fertilizer and petrochemical feedstocks: Trade with Russia is sanction-affected and slow. Trade with Iran is logistically delayed and sanctioned. Prices of fertilizer inputs and solvents are up by 8–20% YoY. ⛽ 3. Crude Oil & Energy Prices Brent crude is trading around $98–$105/barrel, raising: Transportation cost Fuel prices in India (though capped via subsidy) Input cost of chemical manufacturing and shipping Industries like textiles, pharma, chemicals, and agro are heavily affected. 📉 4. Rupee Under Pressure INR hovering around ₹85.5–₹86.2 per USD, due to: Stronger dollar (safe-haven effect) FII outflows from Indian equity markets This makes imports more expensive, especially for gold, crude, and chemicals. 📊 5. Stock Market Volatility Sensex and Nifty are swinging heavily with global news. Defensive sectors (FMCG, Pharma) are performing better. Export-heavy industries (like chemicals) have opportunities, but also margin pressure. 🌟 Summary Table: Impact Overview Sector Impact Gold Historic high due to global uncertainty Chemicals Raw material cost spike; supply delays Fertilizers Disrupted imports from Russia/Iran Energy Crude oil up → affects all transport-based costs INR Weakening vs USD, inflating import costs Stock Market Volatile; safe-haven shift to gold/bonds 🔮 What to Expect Going Forward? Gold will stay high as long as conflicts are unresolved. Indian chemical traders should diversify sourcing toward Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia. Importers should hedge currency and freight risks. The government may increase fertilizer subsidies and push Make-in-India in the chemical segment.